🔸 FOMC meets today at 2 PM ET, Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair. Markets price a near-certain hold at 3.50–3.75%. Focus: will the statement open the door to a June cut given oil-driven reflation?
🔸 Iran talks collapsed. Rubio rejected Tehran's Hormuz-reopening proposal; Trump is now preparing an extended naval blockade. Brent is up ~10% on the week to near $110/bbl.
🔸 Visa Q2 FY2026: revenue $11.23B (+17% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $3.31 beat the $3.09 consensus, payments volume +9%, cross-border +12%. New $20B share buyback authorized.
🔸 MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN all report after close today. Bloomberg: AI capital spending is the central question; hyperscaler capex guidance will set the tone for the next growth cycle.
🔸 GDP Q1 2026 advance estimate releases tomorrow (April 30) at 8:30 ET. Reuters median forecast: 2.3% annualized. Bets on a surprise miss are rising as tariff drag and slowing consumer data cloud the print.
🔸 Gold and oil decoupled into FOMC: real yields rose, gold sold off, while Brent ripped to $110 on the Iran collapse. The split reinforced the Fed's higher-for-longer stance heading into Powell's 2 PM statement.
🪙Crypto Updates:
🔸 AG Blanche at Bitcoin 2026: DOJ fundamentally changed the rules. Developers not knowingly aiding criminal use of their code won't be investigated. Direct response to Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet.
🔸 CLARITY Act Senate markup pushed to May. Lummis at Bitcoin 2026: April deadline missed. Open issues: stablecoin yield, DeFi provisions, Republican votes. Galaxy Research: 50% enactment odds by year-end.
🔸 MARA launched the MARA Foundation at Bitcoin 2026: network security, quantum resistance research, open-source dev, and self-custody tools. CEO Fred Thiel says miners have responsibilities beyond hashing.
🔸 A coalition including Block, Coinbase, and Bitcoin Policy Institute proposed at Bitcoin 2026: exempt BTC transactions under $600, up to $20K annually, from capital gains reporting to make everyday payments practical.
🔸 Czech National Bank governor Aleš Michl announced a 1% Bitcoin allocation from its $180B reserves at Bitcoin 2026 Day 2. CNB research: Bitcoin raises expected returns without increasing overall portfolio risk.
🔸 Saylor at Bitcoin 2026 Day 2: $10M long-term BTC target plus a digital credit pitch. STRC, his BTC-backed preferred stock, framed as the largest preferred float globally in 8 months at 11% tax-deferred yields.