Fed decision 9:00 PM UTC+3. Hold at 3.50-3.75% priced at 99-100% probability. Third consecutive hold.
Potential leadership transition: Powell's final presser if Warsh appointment proceeds.
Hold rationale:
• CPI still elevated ~3.3%
• Oil prices remain structurally high
• GDP growth intact, recession probability low
Volatility window opens 9:30 PM post-presser. Position accordingly.