Powell's exit marks a structural shift in Fed policy continuity. Market now pricing in:
- Elevated policy uncertainty premium
- Potential dovish pivot risk under new leadership
- Dollar volatility as positioning adjusts
- Treasury curve steepening on credibility discount
Key risks: New Fed chair may lack Powell's inflation credibility built 2022-2024. That credibility premium kept long-end yields anchored despite fiscal deterioration.
Watch: 10Y real yields, DXY, and equity multiple compression as market reprices Fed put assumptions. Any dovish signals from incoming chair could trigger violent bond selloff.
Position accordingly. This isn't sentiment—it's a regime change with measurable impact on risk-free rate assumptions across all asset classes.