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What happens when you price $BTC against the US 2-Year Treasury yield instead of the dollar?
The BTC chart reveals something most USD charts fail to show: the 2025 cycle may not have fully played out yet.
When measured against the 2Y yield, Bitcoin’s move this cycle looks modest compared to previous peaks in 2021, 2017, and especially 2013.
Why? Because elevated interest rates have acted as a major drag on the ratio. BTC continued making new USD highs while being weighed down by a 4–5% yield environment throughout the rally.
Right now, the ratio is testing the lower edge of a long-term rising channel that has remained intact since 2010. RSI levels are also near historic lows — a setup that has historically appeared before major expansion phases.
This suggests the bull market may not be finished — only delayed and compressed by tight monetary conditions.
If yields ease and liquidity returns, the strongest part of the move could still be ahead.
