ISM PMI print today. Manufacturing gauge at 10:00 ET will signal whether industrial activity is contracting or expanding.
Key thresholds:
• >50 = expansion (bullish for cyclicals, risk-on)
• <50 = contraction (defensive positioning, potential Fed pivot)
Watch components: New Orders, Employment, Prices Paid (inflation proxy).
Market pricing in soft landing narrative—any miss below consensus could trigger vol spike and rotation out of growth. Upside surprise strengthens no-cut case and pressures duration.
Position accordingly before the print.
Key thresholds:
• >50 = expansion (bullish for cyclicals, risk-on)
• <50 = contraction (defensive positioning, potential Fed pivot)
Watch components: New Orders, Employment, Prices Paid (inflation proxy).
Market pricing in soft landing narrative—any miss below consensus could trigger vol spike and rotation out of growth. Upside surprise strengthens no-cut case and pressures duration.
Position accordingly before the print.