Global chemical markets for Apr 27–May 2 show geopolitics still outweighing the long-cycle oversupply story.
📌 The chemical market saw no major new shock last week, but Middle East tensions and Hormuz disruption risk remained the main driver. Brent holding near $108–110/bbl kept feedstock, logistics, and raw material costs elevated, spreading pressure from petrochemicals to fertilizers.
💡 Price strength is now moving beyond oil and gas. U.S. ethane-based ethylene margins rose from about 7 to 23 cents/lb, urea and ammonia stayed firm, Qatar sulphur climbed near $740/t FOB, and MEG May ACP rebounded to $810/t CFR Asia as Middle East supply tightened.
🔎 Regional divergence is becoming clearer. The U.S. benefits from cheaper feedstock and lower exposure to Middle East naphtha, giving Gulf Coast producers better margin support. Asia and Europe face a tougher mix of high energy costs, tighter supply, and uneven downstream demand.
⚠️ Price hikes from BASF, Dow, Eastman, and Sun Chemical from early May show that higher costs are being passed down to end-use sectors. PU foams, coatings, automotive, electronics, polyester, textiles, and packaging are now more exposed as methanol, MDI/TDI, PC, PET, and MEG enter a new volatility cycle.
⏱️ Southeast Asia needs closer monitoring. MEG tightness could affect polyester and textile chains in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and India, while sulphur shortages add pressure to Indonesia’s nickel chain. Regional buyers may lean more on long-term contracts instead of spot supply.
✅ Still, the market is not fully bullish. China’s overcapacity in olefins, polymers, and other commodity segments remains a structural risk. If Hormuz tensions ease and supply normalizes, the geopolitical premium could fade quickly and margins may return to pressure.
📊 The May–Q2 outlook still points to elevated and volatile prices in fertilizers, sulphur, MEG, methanol, and petrochemicals. The U.S. may keep a short-term advantage, while Asia and Europe face less predictable input costs.