$BTC
People are getting bullish way too early again.
We’re only around 212 days into this bear market, which is still far from the average cycle duration, yet many are already convinced the bottom is in.
Every cycle tends to follow the same psychological pattern — a relief rally starts, sentiment improves, and suddenly everyone believes the worst is over.
That’s exactly what the market is showing right now.
But several important signs of a true macro bottom are still missing:
• repeated liquidity sweeps
• a confirmed higher timeframe structure shift on the weekly chart
• real market-wide capitulation
Of course, no cycle plays out exactly the same, and history never repeats perfectly.
Still, calling the bottom after just a few months would make this Bitcoin bear market end dramatically faster than previous cycles, which seems unlikely for now.
Personally, I still expect lower prices before the real bottom forms.
My bias only changes if Bitcoin reclaims and holds above the $97K level, which would invalidate the current bearish higher timeframe structure.
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