🚀 Bitcoin Sees Strongest Gains on US Holidays, CoinGecko Reports
A fascinating long-term study has revealed that Bitcoin (BTC) historically experiences a unique price boost tied closely to US federal holidays.
According to research conducted by CoinGecko—which analyzed data spanning from May 2013 to May 2026—the crypto market tends to react quite differently when traditional US financial markets are closed.
Here are the key takeaways from the report:
The Holiday Premium: US federal holidays produced an average next-day return of +0.77% for Bitcoin. This is significantly higher than the standard +0.19% baseline return seen on regular non-holiday days.
The New Year's Spike: New Year’s Day emerged as the strongest performer, boasting an average next-day return of +2.01% and a massive 84.6% win rate (historical likelihood of ending the day in the green).
Columbus Day Performance: Columbus Day matched New Year's Day with an identical 84.6% win rate, delivering a solid +1.70% average return.
The Exceptions: Not all holidays are bullish. Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Independence Day (4th of July) bucked the trend, showing negative average returns and win rates below 50%.
Why Does This Happen?
CoinGecko attributes the highly successful "New Year’s Day effect" to two major market psychology factors:
Fresh Capital Allocations: Institutional and retail investors deploying new capital at the very start of the fiscal year.
Tax-Loss Selling Reversals: The immediate bounce-back after investors finish selling off losing assets in late December to lock in tax write-offs.
🚫 Crypto Investment Disclaimer
The information provided above is based on historical market trends and does not guarantee future performance. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This content is purely for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial or trading advice. Always do your own research before investing.
Sources: Binance News / CoinGecko / BeInCrypto
