📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 16/05/2026
The latest statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between the FGI and Winrate remains low and continues to lean negative (r ~ -0.319). This further reinforces that FGI is not suitable as a tool for predicting price direction or identifying trade entries, but it still has practical value in quantifying position risk. Specifically, trading performance generally tends to decline when market sentiment enters the extreme excitement zone, making FGI more useful as an early risk-warning signal rather than a signal for expanding profit exposure.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and number of recorded days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.2% • R:R=1:1.21 • n=150
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 47.1% • R:R=1:1.12 • n=201
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.9% • R:R=1:0.89 • n=92
The percentage of days with performance above the average level (46.61%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 37.2%
😐 Neutral: 39.3%
😨 Fear: 54.7%
😱 Extreme Fear: 70.7%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, expected profit targets need to be raised to ensure a large enough R:R, helping compensate for the risk of a lower winrate.
📉 When FGI is low, expected profit targets can be reduced to increase capital turnover speed and make profit realization easier.