Bitcoin's on-chain metrics paint a picture of a market purging weak hands while building a foundation for recovery: capitulation is evident in STH losses and low MVRV, but accumulation by LTHs, institutions, and whales—coupled with declining exchange reserves and robust network health—signals underlying strength. Resistance looms at $106,000–$118,000 due to supply overhang, potentially capping rallies unless reclaimed. This aligns with historical transitions, where such data preceded bottoms. However, external factors like macro uncertainty could extend the limbo phase. Bullish if inflows resume; monitor for breaks above STH cost basis for conviction.
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