That post mixes real data with some bad history.
*1. Kevin Warsh is confirmed, but not sworn in yet*
- Senate confirmed Warsh 54-45 on May 13, 2026.
- Powell’s term ended May 15, but the Fed board made him chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in. So “today Kevin Warsh officially took the seat” isn’t quite right yet. 977025c2
*2. The “Fed chair change = Bitcoin crash” pattern isn’t real*
You listed 3 dates:
- Jan 2014 Yellen: BTC dropped a lot, but it was post-Mt. Gox collapse and China ban, not the chair change.
- Feb 2018 Powell: BTC was already down 60% from Dec 2017 peak. Powell took over Feb 5, 2018, mid-crash.
- May 2022 Powell: Powell was re-confirmed, not a new chair. BTC was falling due to LUNA/FTX and Fed hikes.
Correlation ≠ causation. BTC crashes with liquidity cycles and crypto-specific events. Fed changes are slow and priced in for weeks.
*3. The macro data you quoted is correct*
- April CPI: 3.8% YoY, 3-year high.
- Core CPI: 2.8% YoY.
- Real wages: -0.3% YoY in April. First negative since 2023.
- Iran war + Hormuz issues drove energy up 17.9%. 10743dd4
*4. The policy conflict is real*
Trump wants cuts. Fed is likely to hold through 2026 because inflation risks are up. Warsh called himself an inflation hawk earlier, but now says AI/productivity can offset inflation. ad502b92c7a6
If he cuts into 3.8% CPI, dollar gets hit and inflation expectations un-anchor. If he holds, Trump pressures him and credit stress builds. So yeah, no clean move.