Bitcoin has not simply touched a technical line. It has reached a zone that already served as a wall in a previous bear cycle. This tension also recalls bitcoin’s fragile rebound after a sharp correction, already marked by liquidations and hesitant institutional demand.
For CryptoQuant, the parallel with 2022 deserves attention. At the time, the 200-day moving average blocked the price before a resumption of the decline. The market then turned an encouraging rebound into just a pause before another drop.
Stronger inflation complicates the bullish scenario. It reduces the hope for a swift easing of monetary conditions. Yet bitcoin favors periods when liquidity flows easily. When rates, inflation, and the dollar regain strength, risky assets advance with less confidence.
The market thus finds itself caught between two narratives. On one side, CryptoQuant sees historic resistance, high profits, and visible sales. On the other, bulls continue to bet on regulation, liquidity, and bitcoin’s role as a rare asset in an unstable world.
The answer will come from the flows. If buyers absorb the profit-taking, the resistance at 82,400 dollars may ultimately give way. If sellers dominate, April’s rebound risks becoming a false breakout. In that case, 70,000 dollars will very quickly become the level to defend
Investors will also have to monitor institutional demand. The six weeks of inflows for Bitcoin ETFs show that major players have not left the market, even if euphoria remains limited. This detail can make the difference. A fragile market does not always collapse. But it requires solid buyers, not just promises.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.