Personally, I still think the next bull cycle can push ETH to a new ATH.
But based on my current understanding of the crypto market, I don’t really see a strong reason for ETH to sustainably break above $10K yet.
$5.3K–$6K? Maybe.
But the real question is:
Who’s going to absorb that level of market cap?
At $10K, ETH would be sitting at a $1.2T+ valuation.
That requires massive new liquidity entering the system:
* leverage expansion
* continuous ETF inflows
* stablecoin supply growth
* global risk-on sentiment
* institutional allocation shifts
* loose monetary conditions
This is no longer just a “crypto narrative” problem.
A few realities:
1. Liquidity is being fragmented everywhere
The market’s attention is infinitely split now:
meme coins, AI, RWA, Solana ecosystem, Base, TON, prediction markets, etc.
2. ETH’s financial dominance isn’t as absolute anymore
Many ecosystems bypass ETH entirely now, especially Solana, Base and TON.
3. $10K requires macro-level resonance
Not just narratives.
You would need:
* Fed easing
* expanding global liquidity
* continued BTC institutionalization
* sustained ETF inflows
* explosive stablecoin growth
* retail mania returning on-chain
Miss one of these, and you may get upside… but not sustainability.
ETH feels more like a crypto index now rather than the highest-beta asset.
That’s very different from 2021.
From a trader’s perspective, this game only cares about liquidity on the table.
Prices can even go negative in some markets because liquidation mechanics reward destruction faster than construction.
Building trust and capital takes years.
Destroying them can happen overnight.
And from a business perspective, there are still policy and demand-side questions.
What happens after Trump leaves office?
Will this market still carry the same level of attention and political momentum?
Without heat, conviction alone doesn’t create sustainable demand.
It reminds me of when I was sourcing vintage Givenchy pieces across Southeast Asia back in 2020.
Emotionally valuable, yes.
But without broad consumer demand, only niche collectors were willing to pay up.
At the end of the day, people need disposable wealth before they can invest.
And before they can invest, they need confidence in the future.
Mulan Capital - Wan