This week's 10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff is out, and the macro picture has shifted materially.

The two bullish catalysts we flagged, Warsh Fed confirmation and CLARITY Act progress, were squarely overshadowed by hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data in the US and Japan. The market has rotated its focus back to inflation risk, and crypto is repricing accordingly.

What the data shows this week:

Bitcoin ETF outflows hit the 7th percentile, $1B+ sold since the May 13 CPI release

Sentiment collapsed from 87% to 45% on our Fear & Greed Index in a single week

Stablecoin inflows at the 8th percentile, fresh capital has stopped entering the market

30-year Treasury at 5.12%, with the 2-year implying nearly two additional rate hikes

Ethereum triggered a bearish signal in our quant model and remains the higher-conviction short

Bitcoin is testing its 30-day moving average. A confirmed break below signals deteriorating momentum. Key levels to watch: $79,125 (short-term bull/bear) and $76,922 (major support).

The longer-term cycle bottom appears intact. We continue to view this as a correction within an emerging bull market, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable until ETF flows stabilize and Bitcoin reclaims key support.

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