Hello Guys, let’s break this down cleanly based on 4H chart, all indicators showing bearish continuetion.
🔍 Current Market Structure
• Trend: Clearly bearish (lower highs + lower lows)
• Price is trading below all major MAs (7, 25, 99) → strong downtrend confirmation
• Supertrend is still red (bearish continuation)
• SAR dots above price → no reversal signal yet
• Bollinger Bands: Price hugging the lower band → selling pressure still dominant
📉 Momentum & Indicators
• MACD: Still below zero → bearish momentum remains
• Histogram slightly flattening → selling pressure slowing, but not reversed
• Volume: Recent red spikes → sell-offs are still being supported
⚠️ Key Levels
• Support:
• 2,074 (recent low wick)
• 2,060 zone (next downside liquidity)
• Resistance:
• 2,125 – 2,190 (MA cluster + previous breakdown area)
• 2,200 – 2,230 (strong rejection zone + Supertrend)
📊 Probable Scenarios
🔴 Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability)
• As long as price stays below ~2,190
• Expect:
• Retest of 2,074
• Possible breakdown toward 2,050 – 2,000
👉 This is the dominant trend scenario
🟡 Short-Term Bounce (Relief Move)
• If price holds above 2,100 zone
• Could see:
• Bounce toward 2,150 – 2,200
• BUT:
• Likely just a pullback to resistance, not a full reversal
🟢 Bullish Reversal (Low Probability for now)
• Needs:
• Strong break above 2,200 – 2,230
• Reclaim of MA25 + Supertrend flip
👉 Only then structure shifts bullish
🧠 Trading Insight (Important)
• Market is in a trend-following phase (not range)
• Best plays:
• Sell rallies, not chase bottoms
• Avoid:
• Blind longs in a downtrend (high risk)
🧭 Summary
• Trend: Bearish
• Momentum: Weak but still down
• Most likely move:
👉 Small bounce → continuation down to test 2,074 or lower