One pattern that continues to stand out across previous $BTC bear market cycles is how price reacts around the 300-week EMA.

Back in March 2020 during the COVID panic selloff, Bitcoin briefly wicked roughly 10% below the 300W EMA before forming a major long-term bottom and reversing aggressively afterward.

The same thing happened again in November 2022 after the FTX collapse. Bitcoin pushed even deeper that cycle, bottoming close to 15% beneath the 300W EMA before eventually reclaiming strength and starting a new uptrend.

Historically, that zone has acted as one of the strongest macro support regions for BTC during extreme fear and capitulation phases.

If a similar deviation below the 300W EMA happens again during the next major correction cycle, current projections would place a potential 2026 bear market bottom somewhere around the $52K–$55K range.

Of course, no indicator is perfect, but the 300W EMA continues to be one of the most respected long-term trend metrics in Bitcoin history, especially when combined with panic-driven market conditions and heavy leverage flushes.