There's a question that rarely gets asked
but deserves serious consideration:
Is the rupiah's recent weakness
truly beyond the government's control —
or is it part of a larger calculation?
Here's the context:
Rupiah is at Rp17,668 per dollar today.
Far above the APBN target of Rp16,500.
At the same time —
a plan is circulating to establish
a Special Commodity Export Body.
The scheme: all coal, CPO, and mineral
exporters must sell to this body first,
before anything goes to international buyers.
On the surface, it sounds like
an anti-corruption move —
cracking down on under invoicing.
But there's an economic logic
worth examining closely:
Weak rupiah =
higher nominal dollar value
from commodity exports.
If a state-controlled body
handles all export transactions —
and the rupiah is sitting at historic lows —
then the state, or entities beneath it,
stands to capture the exchange rate spread
at an enormous scale.
Not an accusation.
Just reading the incentive structure.
What makes this question more valid:
The Finance Minister says he doesn't know.
The Director General of Minerals says he doesn't know.
The CEO of Danantara says wait till tomorrow.
A policy supposedly in the national interest —
but the Finance Minister
wasn't even part of the conversation.
Read that for what it is.
#Rupiah #IHSG #IndonesiaEconomy
#CommodityExport #Danantara #Eugenivium #CryptoThoughts