#S&P500

The S&P 500 has been doing the same thing since 1920 and almost nobody frames it correctly.

A new technology arrives. Markets expand for roughly 25 years while that technology reshapes the economy. Then a short consolidation. Then the next technology arrives and does it again.

🔸Electronics: 24 years of expansion.

🔸PCs and internet: 25 years of expansion.

🔸AI and smartphones: we're in year 15.

Every single consolidation phase felt like the end of the world. Every single expansion phase felt "too extended" by year 10.

We've been in "too extended" territory for about 5 years now. The last two cycles ran for another decade after reaching this exact point.