Yeah — that Al Arabiya “final draft” is what’s moving oil right now.
*What’s actually reported:*
According to Al Arabiya’s leaked 9-point draft: f9d5
1. *Immediate, unconditional ceasefire* on land, sea, air f9d5
2. *No targeting* of military, civilian, economic infrastructure f9d5
3. *Guaranteed free navigation* in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman f9d5
4. *Joint monitoring mechanism* for implementation f9d5
5. *Talks on outstanding issues* start within 7 days f9d5
6. *Gradual US sanctions relief* in exchange for Iran sticking to the deal f9d5
Arab News and The Week have published the same text. None of it is officially confirmed by the US or Iran yet. 7a92325f
*Why the market’s reacting:*
The Strait carries ∼20% of global oil and LNG. It’s been effectively closed since Feb 28, and that’s why Brent is stuck above $100. If Hormuz actually reopens, the risk premium unwinds fast. 45f9549d
*Reality check:*
- *Rubio says “slight progress” but “not close to the end”*. He’s also pushing a “Plan B” if Iran blocks the strait. 45f9
- *HEU and nuclear terms are still sticking points*. The leaked draft doesn’t mention uranium export, enrichment limits, or missiles. 38d0325f
- *Iran’s side is split*. Supreme Leader’s office reportedly ordered HEU to stay in Iran, while others say they’ll down-blend it domestically. 35ed
- *Pakistan and Qatar are mediating*. Munir met IRGC command today. f9e9