📊 Market Snapshot & Technical Picture
Bitcoin$BTC has pulled back significantly from its October highs. CoinCodex+1
According to CCDiscovery, BTC is trading in a volatile $92K–$98K range as the market digests recent macro shocks. CC Discovery
Key technical risk: a “death cross” signal may be forming, which often suggests lower prices ahead. Business Insider
Support is being watched around $90K, a critical line for bulls to defend. Reddit
⚙️ Macro Drivers & Risks
Big macro risks are weighing on Bitcoin: geopolitical tensions (e.g., tariffs), coupled with uncertainty around U.S. rate cuts, are pressuring investor risk appetite. The Economic Times+1
ETF flows remain a key narrative; if institutional inflows resume strongly, that could fuel the next leg up. The Economic Times
On-chain models (like quantile regression) from some analysts still point to big potential upside in the long run — one model even projected a cycle top around $250K–$300K (though that’s a high-case scenario). Cointelegraph
🧭 Looking Ahead: Scenarios to Watch
Bearish Base Case: BTC fails to hold $90K → drops lower or grinds sideways; this is the more likely short-term path if economic uncertainty persists.
Bullish Recovery: A dovish surprise from the Fed or easing geopolitical tension could spark a short squeeze → pushing BTC back above $100K+.
Long-Term Bull Thesis: If institutional demand returns and on-chain accumulation continues, Bitcoin could reignite a strong bull run later in 2025.
✅ Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s in a corrective phase, not a full breakdown — but risks are real. For now:
Bulls need to defend $90K → a loss would increase short-term downside.
A bounce from here could set up a move to $100K+, but that depends on macro relief or ETF demand.
Long-term models still show upside, though they hinge on sustained demand.#WriteToEarnUpgrade #BTCVolatility #USJobsData #USStocksForecast2026
