THE NEXT TRADFI CYCLE MAY NOT REWARD “EVERYTHING” ANYMORE
Looking at current futures positioning, I think the market is entering a much narrower and more selective cycle than previous years.
Gold and oil are weakening because traders still expect elevated rates and slower global demand. At the same time, AI-linked futures like Micron continue attracting aggressive capital flows. That tells us one important thing:
Wall Street is no longer chasing broad momentum.
It is concentrating into sectors with real cash flow visibility and structural demand.
My personal view for the next cycle:
• Gold could recover if yields cool and volatility returns • Oil may stay unstable because geopolitics and weak manufacturing are conflicting forces • Traditional defensive sectors may underperform if liquidity rotates back into growth • AI infrastructure remains the strongest long-term institutional narrative right now
If I had to choose the “strongest” TradFi-related asset currently, I still think BTC and AI infrastructure-linked equities look the most structurally resilient.
Why?
Because both are benefiting from: • institutional concentration • liquidity depth • macro relevance • long-term capital allocation trends
The market ahead may become less about hype — and more about survivability, liquidity, and real demand.
