$BTC Cycle’s is broken:

As many of you have noticed, Bitcoin’s returns have been decreasing with each cycle. The first major expansion delivered extraordinary gains, then the next cycle produced roughly half of that, and the pattern has continued.

But few people ask the obvious question: if this trend continues indefinitely, where does it lead?

Following the same rate of decline, cycle returns would eventually shrink from 7x to 3.5x, then 1.7x, then 0.85x, ultimately reaching a point where Bitcoin can no longer produce meaningful expansion. The cycle would effectively be exhausted.

This is why I believe a major reset is necessary.

A deep correction into the $10,500–11,700$ re-accumulation zone would allow the market to rebuild its foundation, reset expectations, remove excess leverage, and create the conditions for a new growth cycle.

Throughout Bitcoin’s history, there has only been one crash of approximately 95%, and I believe a similar reset could be required here. Only after such a reset can Bitcoin potentially repeat the type of explosive move seen during the first major zigzag, which delivered gains of roughly 4,400%. Since being listed on exchanges.

My thesis is simple: without a reset, each cycle continues to weaken. With a reset, Bitcoin has the opportunity to restart the cycle and generate another powerful impulsive expansion.