A buyout for an Imaginary $300 Billion 💰
The most interesting part of the agreement between the USA and Iran is the enormous compensation that the Americans are supposedly required to pay Tehran following the bombings.
▫️ Trump and Vance deny agreeing to such a provision, but that does not necessarily mean it isn't there. Trump has repeatedly said one thing and done another.
◽️ At the same time, the amount is extraordinarily large. We cannot rule out the possibility of a simple negotiating tactic - Trump may have agreed to all of Iran's demands with the intention of renegotiating after the Strait of Hormuz blockade is lifted. His priority was to reduce inflationary pressure on U.S. monetary policy ahead of the November midterm elections at any cost.
◽️ Now it is entirely possible that a gradual retreat from some of these commitments will begin. Reduce $300 billion to $250 billion, then to $200 billion, and eventually drag the issue out until the end of the presidential term, leaving the problem to the next administration.
➡️ In summary: even if Trump ultimately tries to walk back the $300 billion commitment, it is unlikely to destroy the agreement. The primary risk factor remains the military conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
For our $SOL long, everything is developing favorably so far.
➡️ If the upward move survives until the June 17 FOMC press release, we could see another impulse higher. Now we are testing the thesis that the market may be exiting the broader bear cycle. We understand that it still looks like a false start for now, but missing such a turning point would be worse than making even ten unsuccessful attempts.
The opportunity is worth the risk.
