🚨 FED PRESSER RECAP – FOMO STYLE 🚨
🔹Markets just got a masterclass in mixed signals. Here's the TL;DR you can't afford to ignore:
1️⃣ Fed = Divided House.
3 dissenters:
- Goolsbee & Schmid = NO CUT.
- Miran = CUT MORE.
Only 9 voted for the 25bps cut.
→ Translation: The easy money ride will be bumpy. Don’t expect smooth sailing.
2️⃣ Powell says NO more hikes.
“Not the base case for anyone.”
→ Ceiling’s likely in..The debate now? How fast can we cut? 🪂
3️⃣ Neutral zone reached.
Powell hints we’re around the high end of neutral.
Also: jobs data might be overstated by 60K/month.
→ Labor market = weaker than it looks.
4️⃣ AI & tariffs = not moving the needle (yet).
- AI: Powell shrugs, says “could help or hurt jobs.”
- Tariffs: short-term bump in inflation, but not hike-worthy.
→ Fed isn’t sweating these... yet.
5️⃣ T-Bill buying ≠ QE.
- $40B in short-term Treasuries.
- Goal = stabilize bank reserves, not flood the system.
$KERNEL $RENDER $TRU
🔹Markets just got a masterclass in mixed signals. Here's the TL;DR you can't afford to ignore:
1️⃣ Fed = Divided House.
3 dissenters:
- Goolsbee & Schmid = NO CUT.
- Miran = CUT MORE.
Only 9 voted for the 25bps cut.
→ Translation: The easy money ride will be bumpy. Don’t expect smooth sailing.
2️⃣ Powell says NO more hikes.
“Not the base case for anyone.”
→ Ceiling’s likely in..The debate now? How fast can we cut? 🪂
3️⃣ Neutral zone reached.
Powell hints we’re around the high end of neutral.
Also: jobs data might be overstated by 60K/month.
→ Labor market = weaker than it looks.
4️⃣ AI & tariffs = not moving the needle (yet).
- AI: Powell shrugs, says “could help or hurt jobs.”
- Tariffs: short-term bump in inflation, but not hike-worthy.
→ Fed isn’t sweating these... yet.
5️⃣ T-Bill buying ≠ QE.
- $40B in short-term Treasuries.
- Goal = stabilize bank reserves, not flood the system.
$KERNEL $RENDER $TRU