Market's real focus right now? Strait of Hormuz.

Past 48hrs saw sentiment flip positive. Why? Iran signaling willingness to negotiate → Hormuz risk cooling → Brent crude pulling back to ~$80.

But here's the catch:

Sep rate hike odds still sitting at 75%. Translation? Oil's cheaper, but money's getting more expensive.

Next 6 months, every asset faces the same question:

Can profit growth outpace rate hikes?

If not, you're getting squeezed. Risk-on needs to prove it can handle tighter liquidity. Otherwise, we're just trading dead cat bounces.