$BTC 's Long-Term Holders Just Stopped Selling
$BTC is sliding toward $62,000 this week, dragged down by a chip-stock selloff that pulled the Nasdaq down over 3%. On the surface, that's a clean bearish picture.
But underneath, something different is happening: Bitcoin's "OGs," holders for five-plus years, have almost stopped selling. The 90-day average of coins they've spent dropped to just 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. At the bull cycle peak, single-day sell-offs from this group sometimes exceeded 142,000 BTC
Why now? $BTC is trading right around the break-even point for the most expensive coins this group could have bought five years ago. Near your own cost basis, there's little incentive to sell.
This matters because OG distribution was a major headwind last cycle, capping gains above $100,000 as every rally ran into legacy supply. If that pressure is genuinely fading, the market may need far less fresh demand to find a floor.
Spot BTC ETF outflows have also been decelerating the past two weeks compared to early June, adding a second sign that major sell-side pressure is easing even as price stays soft.
That said, the chip selloff is a separate, real problem a macro/equity risk-off move that can keep pressuring BTC egardless of on-chain behavior. Price and structure can diverge before they reconcile.
My take: I weigh this more than daily candles. Heavy OG selling capped upside for a year; if it's fading, the floor may be closer than the price action suggests. Not a buy signal on its own, but it changes how I read the red candles.
$BTC is sliding toward $62,000 this week, dragged down by a chip-stock selloff that pulled the Nasdaq down over 3%. On the surface, that's a clean bearish picture.
But underneath, something different is happening: Bitcoin's "OGs," holders for five-plus years, have almost stopped selling. The 90-day average of coins they've spent dropped to just 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. At the bull cycle peak, single-day sell-offs from this group sometimes exceeded 142,000 BTC
Why now? $BTC is trading right around the break-even point for the most expensive coins this group could have bought five years ago. Near your own cost basis, there's little incentive to sell.
This matters because OG distribution was a major headwind last cycle, capping gains above $100,000 as every rally ran into legacy supply. If that pressure is genuinely fading, the market may need far less fresh demand to find a floor.
Spot BTC ETF outflows have also been decelerating the past two weeks compared to early June, adding a second sign that major sell-side pressure is easing even as price stays soft.
That said, the chip selloff is a separate, real problem a macro/equity risk-off move that can keep pressuring BTC egardless of on-chain behavior. Price and structure can diverge before they reconcile.
My take: I weigh this more than daily candles. Heavy OG selling capped upside for a year; if it's fading, the floor may be closer than the price action suggests. Not a buy signal on its own, but it changes how I read the red candles.