Cboe Global Markets just launched its first prediction market product tied to the S&P 500 index. The new platform, called "Cboe Predicts," debuts with binary contracts that let traders take "yes" or "no" positions on whether the S&P 500 will close above or below a specific price level.
The contracts are now live through Interactive Brokers and expected to arrive at Charles Schwab and other retail platforms soon. They trade under the same regulatory framework as US-listed options, giving participants institutional-grade liquidity and transparency.
This move comes as prediction markets explode in popularity. Polymarket and Kalshi already offer S&P 500 daily closing contracts, and Charles Schwab has been exploring its own entry into the space. Cboe says its customers are demanding shorter-dated, outcome-based trading opportunities — and the exchange is answering.
But regulation is catching up fast. Kentucky recently sued five prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of illegal sports betting. US lawmakers have also proposed restrictions on political prediction market trading by government officials.
Do you think traditional exchanges entering prediction markets will legitimize the space or invite tighter regulation? 📊