#TrumpTariffs Donald Trump's tariffs have significantly impacted global trade flows, with the US seeing a reduction in Chinese goods imports and an increase in ASEAN imports, which have lower tariffs averaging 10%. The tariffs have also led to a decline in Asia's imports of US energy, with China's imports of US crude oil dropping 84% in 2025 compared to 2024. India's exports to the US have defied tariffs, strengthening its hand in trade talks, with shipments rising over 22% in November from a year earlier. ¹ ² ³

*Key Effects of Trump's Tariffs:*

- *Trade Diversion*: US imports from China have plummeted, while Mexico and Southeast Asia have gained ground, with US imports from Mexico peaking at nearly $48 billion in March 2025.

- *Tariff Rates*: The effective US tariff rate is estimated to be around 17%, with some rates as high as 40% on Chinese goods and 50% on Indian goods.

- *Global Trade Growth*: The World Trade Organization has revised downward its global trade growth forecast for 2025, citing the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty. ⁴ ⁵ ⁶

*Impact on Specific Countries:*

- *India*: India's exports to the US have increased, despite tariffs, due to a weaker rupee and exporters tapping new markets.

- *China*: China's exports to the US have declined, with a notable drop in electronics and industrial machinery imports.

- *Southeast Asia*: Southeast Asian economies have proven resilient, with some countries like Vietnam and Thailand benefiting from the trade diversion.

Follow-up questions:

- How might the outcome of the US midterm elections affect Trump's tariff policies?

- What are the potential implications of Trump's tariffs on the global economy in 2026 and beyond?

- How will the recent trade deals with countries like Japan and the UK impact US trade deficits?