🔥 $LUNA Market Analysis: High Volatility with Dominant Bearish Pressure

Trading volume has surged dramatically, exceeding $1.3B during the recent breakdown from the $0.1259 level. This indicates substantial selling pressure and suggests a potential capitulation event is underway.

Capital flow data reveals a concerning pattern. While minor inflows are visible on shorter timeframes (1H/4H), they are overwhelmingly overshadowed by significant outflows across the 24H, 3D, 5D, and 7D periods (ranging from -$8M to -$11M). This institutional distribution is a clear warning sign.

The price action tells a decisive story. Following a 40% collapse from the ~$0.195 high, the subsequent 9.5% recovery has been weak—characteristic of a dead-cat bounce. Prominent upper wicks on daily candles, particularly from November 27th, demonstrate strong rejection at higher levels. Price is now consolidating within this damaged range, likely gearing up for its next directional move.

My Strategy: Cautious Short Bias on $LUNA2

· Ideal Entry Zone: $0.1180 – $0.1220 (a retest of prior support, now turned resistance)

· Stop-Loss: Above $0.1280

· Primary Target: $0.0990

Why This Setup? The technical alignment is bearish: a stacked moving average configuration, a negative MACD, consistent distribution flows, and negative funding rates all point to further downside. Although the oversold KDJ hint at a possible short-lived bounce into resistance, the broader momentum favors a continuation downward. Always manage your risk meticulously—counter-trend rallies can be swift and volatile.

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