❕ NVIDIA and China: chips as geopolitical leverage
NVIDIA is aiming to ship around 80,000 H200 GPUs to China before Lunar New Year 2026 in what looks like a tightly controlled release.
The goal is to prove demand and set a precedent, with broader capacity orders potentially opening in Q2 2026.
The move sits at the intersection of politics and supply chains.
🟡 Washington is applying a 25% surcharge on approved exports
🟡 Beijing is considering approvals, but only if H200 purchases are bundled with mandatory buys of domestic accelerators
🟡 Shipments are limited, deliberate, and heavily negotiated
Both sides are using $NVDA as leverage. For the US, it’s export control with monetization. For China, it’s conditional access tied to strengthening local chip ecosystems.