2025 TGE Reality Check
An analyst recently shared a broad dataset on 2025 token launches, showing that most TGEs are now trading below their opening valuation
🔍 Our Key Additional Insight from the Same Dataset
When tokens are grouped by opening FDV, the pattern is clear:
The higher the opening valuation, the worse the post-TGE performance
Across the 118 tokens analyzed:
• All 29 projects that launched with an opening valuation above $1B are now trading below their TGE valuation, with most sitting deep in the red
• 21 out of those 29 are down more than 60% vs TGE, many falling into the worst-performing cohort
Looking at the deepest drawdowns:
• 46 tokens are trading 80% or more below their TGE valuation
• Among them, 15 launched above $1B in opening valuation
• 34 launched above $500M
This isn’t random weakness. It’s a systematic repricing as the market pushes back against inflated starting valuation
