🔥 $DOT remains stuck in a brutal downtrend, hovering near fresh lows, but price action is starting to hint at a possible short-term rebound for quick, tactical traders.
Volume paints a clear picture. The largest spikes, including the 227M surge in late August, occurred during aggressive sell-offs—classic panic liquidation. Recently, volume has normalized, with no new heavy selling pressure. This slowdown often signals seller exhaustion and opens the door for a temporary relief bounce.
Capital flows remain conflicted. Long-term data shows strong outflows (spot -5.6M, contracts -18.7M over 24H–7D), keeping the broader trend bearish. However, short-term contract flows from 5m to 8H have flipped positive, suggesting early dip buyers are stepping in at depressed levels. Short-term bulls are testing the waters while macro pressure still dominates.
My view on $DOT is cautiously bullish, strictly for a counter-trend bounce. Momentum indicators are deeply oversold, with RSI and KDJ stretched, and price pressing against the lower Bollinger Band. These conditions favor a technical rebound, but this does not change the overall downtrend—position size must stay small.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Scale in near support at 1.70–1.69, or wait for a confirmed 1H/4H close above MA5 around 1.79 with momentum confirmation.
Stop Loss: Below 1.65 (under the recent swing low).
Targets:
TP1: 1.86 (near-term resistance)
TP2: 1.96 (mid-Bollinger / 20-day MA confluence)
This is a tactical bounce setup, not a trend reversal. Manage risk tightly and scale out into strength.
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