Is CPI Data Quality at an All-Time Low? 📉
Due to the recent government shutdown, October survey data collection was completely missed – forcing BLS to estimate or carry forward prices from September.
This led to a record-high reliance on imputations (around 40% in recent months), with shelter/rents effectively showing zero change in October (a massive ~1/3 of core CPI).
Normally, BLS uses ~90,000 real price quotes monthly. Imputations are usually ~10%, but now hitting 30-40%+ for months – the highest on record.
Overall, trust in the official inflation numbers is fading fast. Real pressures might be higher than reported.
