Central Bank and Investor Demand: J.P. Morgan expects continued robust demand from central banks and investors, with a projected average quarterly demand of around 585 tonnes in 2026. This is significantly higher than pre-2022 averages.
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The market entering a U.S. Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle is a major catalyst. Historically, gold prices have shown sustained increases during and after the start of rate-cutting cycles, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty: Concerns around stagflation, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and ongoing geopolitical tensions drive "safe-haven" demand for gold.
Dollar Diversification: The trend is described less as "de-dollarization" and more as diversification, with foreign holders of U.S. assets gradually reallocating small portions of their investments into gold, which supports its price appreciation.
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