📌 Latest Official Data
• Q3 2025 GDP: +4.3% annualized growth — stronger than expected. Growth was lifted by consumer spending, exports, and government spending. 
📈 Short-Term Outlook
• Q4 2025 Nowcasts:
• GDPNow (Atlanta Fed) Estimate: ~3.0% growth (late December) — slower than Q3 but still moderate. 
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: ~1.7% (mid-December estimate). 
• Professional Forecasters: Annual 2025 growth ~1.9% — showing slower expansion over the year. 
🔎 What This Means Short Term
✔ Economy remains growing, not contracting.
✔ Q3 jump was robust, but Q4 likely slower due to data lags, weaker investment, and consumer caution.
✔ Forecasts suggest moderate growth ahead, not recession — but at lower pace than Q3.
Summary: After a strong Q3 growth of 4.3%, short-term models point to slower but positive economic expansion in Q4 (roughly ~1.7–3.0%). Growth is continuing, but at a more modest pace compared with earlier quarters.
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