$XPL market is currently a classic "tug-of-war" between a speculative bounce and heavy selling pressure from big players. While the price recently jumped 11% from its all time low of $0.115 to hover around $0.14, the rally looks shaky. "Short Whales" are outnumbering buyers by nearly 8 to 1, and these big sellers are already in profit, waiting to sell into any strength. Technical tools like the MACD and RSI aren't showing much "buy" conviction yet, suggesting this move might just be a "relief rally" before the next drop.
Despite the price struggle, the project is working hard to bring in fresh blood. Binance is currently running a Mystery Box campaign (ending mid January 2026) where new users can win XPL vouchers worth up to $888. This follows the hype of their Q3 airdrop, which was famous for being very exclusive and high value. This promotional push is a clear attempt to build a floor of retail support and increase the number of holders while the "smart money" stays cautious.
Looking ahead, the next move depends on the $0.1585 resistance level. If XPL can’t break above that, the bears will likely take control again, risking a retest of the $0.115 lows. For the long term, traders are nervous about "token unlocks"most of the supply is still locked up, and new coins hitting the market in 2026 could create more gravity for the price. For now, it’s a high-risk game of "wait and see" to find out if the whales will stop selling or if the retail campaigns can spark a real reversal.
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