Something important is happening beneath the surface 👇
A broad basket of commodities is moving higher simultaneously, something that statistically occurs less than 5% of the time outside of stress regimes
Gold is acting defensive
Copper is acting late-cycle
Energy is being bid despite slowing demand indicators
That combination doesn’t show up during acceleration phases
The last three times capital behaved this way
• Early 2000
• Mid-2007
• Late-2019
Equity markets stayed calm for months after the signal
What changed wasn’t inflation or supply constraints it was risk tolerance.
When real assets absorb capital across the board, it means portfolios are being re-positioned for fragility, not expansion
Bond volatility stays elevated.
Growth expectations compress.
Liquidity starts to matter more than earnings.
Macro data will lag this move, as it always does.
Price is the signal.
Everything else is commentary.
