Фрактальна модель прогнозує падіння $BTC

Headline: Could Bitcoin’s current pullback turn into a prolonged bear market? Fractal models point to a deeper low — but on-chain signals and macro liquidity offer counterarguments Bitcoin is in the midst of one of its deepest corrections in recent memory. After peaking at an all-time high (ATH) of $126,000, the world’s largest crypto has slipped below $100,000 — a level it first crossed roughly a year ago. At press time it trades near $87,000, and sentiment on the charts remains fragile, with several indicators signaling downside risk. What the fractal model says - The Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator (source: Alphractal), a fractal-based model that has historically tracked BTC’s bullish and bearish phases, flagged entry into “bearish territory” after correctly identifying the October 10 market peak and the subsequent drop. - According to that pattern, the current bearish phase could persist until October 16, 2026. - Fractal analyst João Wedson suggests a potential bottom in the $40,000–$45,000 range, but cautions this is not a deterministic price forecast: “This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles—something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored.” What that would mean in percentage terms - The move from $126,000 down to today’s ~$87,000 represents roughly a 32% retracement — consistent with many of Bitcoin’s historical minor corrections (often within ~35%). - If fractal projections materialize and BTC falls to $40,000–$45,000, the decline would be in the 64%–68% range — signaling a major cycle correction rather than a garden-variety pullback. On-chain and technical context: signals that complicate the deep-bear thesis - Accumulation/Distribution (A/D): In 2021’s major drawdown, clear distribution showed off-chain traded volume collapsing from ~9.8M BTC to ~4M BTC. Today, traded volume has barely moved — slipping only from 17.63M BTC to 17.52M BTC (source: TradingView) — a pattern that doesn’t confirm a broad-based distribution phase. - MACD: While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence still flashes bearish, its histogram is shifting from deep red to lighter shades — a transition that often precedes recovery phases rather than a continued plunge. Macro and institutional backdrop: reasons bulls point to resilience - Market structure has evolved since 2021. Institutional and sovereign participation has increased, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have launched in major jurisdictions including the U.S. and Hong Kong. - U.S. institutional demand alone is estimated to have put roughly $116.58 billion into crypto, while global M2 money supply sits near $147 trillion — historical liquidity expansion that tends to flow into risk assets and could support a recovery. Two competing narratives - Bearish fractal view: The repeating-cycle model and the possibility of a 64%–68% drawdown suggest Bitcoin could be in a prolonged corrective phase stretching into 2026. - Bullish/resilient view: Stable traded volumes, technical signs of decelerating bearish momentum, increased institutional adoption, and abundant global liquidity argue that a full-blown major cycle collapse is less likely. Bottom line Bitcoin’s current ~32% retracement falls within the range of typical short-term corrections, but fractal models warn a deeper correction remains possible. Off-chain metrics and evolving macro participation, however, complicate that narrative — leaving markets divided between a protracted bear thesis and a scenario where this pullback finds its natural bottom and rebounds. Disclaimer: This article is informational only and should not be taken as investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading is high risk—do your own research before making financial decisions. © 2025 AMBCrypto (sources: Alphractal, TradingView) Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news