Sasha why NOT
--
Bitcoin's Q4 Dives Deep into Negative Territory: Is 2026 Under Threat?
Hey! Bitcoin is currently facing a serious wave of data, and it doesn't look good at all. Let's break down what's happening in simple terms—like I'm explaining it to you over coffee.
Analysts at CryptoQuant are sounding the alarm: Bitcoin is on track for one of its weakest fourth-quarter closings in history. The current quarterly return is -19.15%. This isn't just a minor correction; it's a signal that has historically often preceded further decline.
What's Wrong with the Chart? Isn't This Just Volatility?
Not exactly. When you look at the Quarterly Performance, the picture becomes clear:
The early quarters of 2025 showed growth (green bars).Q4 sharply reversed the trend into deep red territory.
Analysts note that when the fourth quarter closes with such a significant loss, it often acts as an "anchor" for further decline over the next 2-3 months. The conclusion: the market is likely entering not a short-term correction, but a deeper and more prolonged phase.
"Capitulation Signals": Why Is Everyone So Nervous?
This is key. Several important indicators are screaming about market stress and sell-offs:
SOPR (0.99) < 1: Investors are, on average, selling coins at a loss. A classic sign of capitulation.Short-Term Holder MVRV (0.87) < 1: Those who bought recently are "underwater" and are likely nervous.35.66% of Supply "Underwater": A significant portion of all bitcoins were bought at prices higher than the current one. This creates persistent selling pressure.Fear & Greed Index (20): The market is in a state of "Extreme Fear," often coinciding with later stages of a correction.
Conclusion: Selling pressure is not exhausted; it remains active.
What About Demand? Is There Just None?
Unfortunately, the data confirms weakness. It's not just about the price:
Market Cap Growth Rate (-11.65%): The market is contracting, not expanding.ETF Outflows: A net outflow of -$825.7 million in one week (Dec 18-24). Institutions are realizing losses or pulling money out.Coinbase Premium Gap (-66.11): U.S. investors (via Coinbase) are selling more actively than buying.
So, What's the Bottom Line? What to Expect in 2026?
The main scenario from CryptoQuant, based on the convergence of all this data: the correction is likely to extend into the first quarter of 2026.
Until the capitulation signals are absorbed (sell-offs subside) and demand indicators start stabilizing, any recovery attempts will face significant resistance.
Question for you: What do you think? Is this correction the last chance to buy before a new rally (like after previous deep declines) or the beginning of a longer "bearish" period? Share your view in the comments! 👇
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #CryptoQuant
Analysts at CryptoQuant are sounding the alarm: Bitcoin is on track for one of its weakest fourth-quarter closings in history. The current quarterly return is -19.15%. This isn't just a minor correction; it's a signal that has historically often preceded further decline.
What's Wrong with the Chart? Isn't This Just Volatility?
Not exactly. When you look at the Quarterly Performance, the picture becomes clear:
The early quarters of 2025 showed growth (green bars).Q4 sharply reversed the trend into deep red territory.
Analysts note that when the fourth quarter closes with such a significant loss, it often acts as an "anchor" for further decline over the next 2-3 months. The conclusion: the market is likely entering not a short-term correction, but a deeper and more prolonged phase.
"Capitulation Signals": Why Is Everyone So Nervous?
This is key. Several important indicators are screaming about market stress and sell-offs:
SOPR (0.99) < 1: Investors are, on average, selling coins at a loss. A classic sign of capitulation.Short-Term Holder MVRV (0.87) < 1: Those who bought recently are "underwater" and are likely nervous.35.66% of Supply "Underwater": A significant portion of all bitcoins were bought at prices higher than the current one. This creates persistent selling pressure.Fear & Greed Index (20): The market is in a state of "Extreme Fear," often coinciding with later stages of a correction.
Conclusion: Selling pressure is not exhausted; it remains active.
What About Demand? Is There Just None?
Unfortunately, the data confirms weakness. It's not just about the price:
Market Cap Growth Rate (-11.65%): The market is contracting, not expanding.ETF Outflows: A net outflow of -$825.7 million in one week (Dec 18-24). Institutions are realizing losses or pulling money out.Coinbase Premium Gap (-66.11): U.S. investors (via Coinbase) are selling more actively than buying.
So, What's the Bottom Line? What to Expect in 2026?
The main scenario from CryptoQuant, based on the convergence of all this data: the correction is likely to extend into the first quarter of 2026.
Until the capitulation signals are absorbed (sell-offs subside) and demand indicators start stabilizing, any recovery attempts will face significant resistance.
Question for you: What do you think? Is this correction the last chance to buy before a new rally (like after previous deep declines) or the beginning of a longer "bearish" period? Share your view in the comments! 👇
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #CryptoQuant
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتضمن آراء أطراف خارجية. ليست نصيحةً مالية. يُمكن أن تحتوي على مُحتوى مُمول. اطلع على الشروط والأحكام.
30
0
استكشف أحدث أخبار العملات الرقمية
⚡️ كُن جزءًا من أحدث النقاشات في مجال العملات الرقمية
💬 تفاعل مع صنّاع المُحتوى المُفضّلين لديك
👍 استمتع بالمحتوى الذي يثير اهتمامك
البريد الإلكتروني / رقم الهاتف