Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tagged the 1D MA50 (blue) today for the first time in ~2 months (since Oct 28) — and got rejected immediately. That’s an early hint the market may still be bearish, with risk building for a sharper downside move.

That said, the bearish case isn’t confirmed as long as the 1W MA100 (red) keeps holding. So far, it’s been tested and defended 3 times since Nov 21 (weekly candles closing above it).

Both moving averages also line up with the structure since the October ATH:

Lower Highs trendline = key resistance

Higher Lows trendline = key support

Scenarios:

✅ Break above the Lower Highs trendline → expect a counter-trend rally in early 2026 toward the 1D MA200 (orange), potentially around $100K+ (similar to prior bear-cycle rallies).

❌ Break below the Higher Lows trendline first → expect at least a -14.96% drop (minimum pullback sequence in this bear cycle), targeting roughly $77,000.

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Not financial advice.

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