Executive Summary (December 29, 2025)
Technical Analysis (1D Chart)
· Price & Trend: BTC is trading in a narrow range between $138,000 and $142,000. The primary long-term trend remains decisively bullish, anchored above a rising 200-week moving average.
· Key Levels:
· Immediate Resistance: $145,000 (Recent ATH from Q4 2025).
· Immediate Support: $135,000 (Previous breakout level from November).
· Major Support: $120,000 (The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 bull run and key institutional accumulation zone).
· Momentum Indicators:
· RSI (14): Hovering around 60 on the daily chart, cooling off from overbought (>80) conditions seen earlier in December. Suggests a healthy pause.
· Volume: Volume is below average, typical for the holiday period between Christmas and New Year, leading to potential for sharper moves on low liquidity.
Technical Bottom Line: The structure is bullish but fatigued. A clean break and close above **$145,000** could ignite the next leg toward **$160,000+. A break below $135,000** could trigger a deeper pullback toward
· Bullish Scenario (45%): Year-end "Santa Rally" momentum continues into January. Low holiday liquidity leads to a short-squeeze, pushing BTC to break $145,000 and target new highs early in Q1 2026.
· Bearish/Corrective Scenario (35%): Profit-taking
Critical Watch Items for Late 2025/Early 2026
· January Effect: Watch for the first week of January for institutional re-allocation and new capital inflows.
· ETF Flow Data: Sustained inflows into global Spot ETFs will be the primary fuel for the next major move.
· Dollar Strength (DXY): Any sharp reversal in the anticipated dovish Fed policy could temporarily pressure BTC.
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