2026 Outlook
Bank of America projects the BOJ's next rate hike will occur in June 2026, with additional increases expected in January and July 2027, ultimately reaching a terminal rate of 1.5% by the end of 2027. Goldman Sachs similarly forecasts a July 2026 hike with a 1.5% terminal rate by mid-2027.
The gradual tightening cycle could create persistent headwinds for crypto markets throughout 2026, particularly if liquidity conditions tighten faster than expected. Some strategists have warned that if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could test the $70,000 level or lower.
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