The Bank of Japan signaled continued interest rate increases ahead in a policy summary released Monday, sending a warning shot to cryptocurrency markets already on edge after a turbulent month. Board members described Japan's real policy interest rate as "by far at the lowest level globally," indicating further tightening is needed despite the central bank's December 19 rate hike to 0.75%—the highest level in three decades. The hawkish tone has revived concerns about the unwinding of yen carry trades, where investors borrow cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Historical patterns show cryptocurrency markets have suffered sharp declines following previous BOJ policy shifts, with Bitcoin dropping 23% after the March 2024 rate hike, 26% following the July 2024 increase, and more than 30% after the January 2025 move.

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