$BTC FED WATCH ALERT: January Rate Cut Slipping Off the Table
The market just blinked — and the Fed isn’t ready to pivot yet.
Right now, futures are pricing only a 16% chance of a rate cut in January, with an overwhelming 84% probability that rates stay locked at 350–375 bps. Translation? The Fed is firmly in wait-and-see mode.
Unless the next few weeks deliver extremely bullish data — cooling inflation, weakening labor, or a sudden growth scare — a January cut looks unlikely. Financial conditions may be easing, but not enough to force the Fed’s hand just yet.
For risk assets, this matters. No cut means liquidity relief gets delayed, and markets will stay hypersensitive to every macro print between now and year-end.
The setup is clear: surprise the Fed with data… or wait longer for the pivot.
Do you think the data cracks in time — or is January officially off the table?
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