Technical Analysis & Market Structure
• Trend Status: The primary trend is Weak/Bearish. XRP has been in a steady decline since its 2025 peak near $3.50, characterized by a "staircase" of lower highs and lower lows.
• Consolidation: Since mid-December, price action has flattened significantly, with candles hugging the $1.85–$1.88 zone. This indicates a period of indecision or "orderly repricing" amid thin holiday liquidity.
• Volume: 24-hour spot volume remains active at approximately $2.2B–$3.0B, suggesting this is a heavy-trading zone rather than an illiquid drift.
• Critical Levels:
• Immediate Support: $1.80. A breach here opens the door to $1.62 and potentially the October flash crash lows near $1.25.
• Psychological Resistance: $2.00. Reclaiming this level is essential for any bullish thesis.
• Major Resistance: A dense block exists between $2.07 and $2.25, which includes recent swing highs and moving average confluence.
Potential Trade Setups
The current market is "range-bound" with a bearish tilt, making entries in the middle of the range risky. Two valid setups depend on a confirmed breakout:
1. The Bearish Continuation (Short)
• Entry: Wait for a daily candle to close below the $1.80 support level.
• Target: $1.62 (Primary) and $1.25 (Secondary).
• Stop Loss: Above $1.92.
• Rationale: Losing the $1.80 floor confirms that the larger downtrend is resuming toward deep liquidity zones.
2. The Trend Reversal (Long)
• Entry: A decisive high-volume break and close above $1.90, targeting a retest of the psychological $2.00 handle.
• Target: $2.07 and $2.22.
• Stop Loss: Below $1.84.
• Rationale: This would signal that the selling pressure has exhausted and buyers are stepping in for a year-end recovery.
Summary Verdict: XRP is currently underperforming compared to BTC and ETH, acting as a "Sell the Rally" asset until it can prove strength above $2.00. The most conservative approach is to wait for the volatility expansion that typically follows such tight consolidation.
