⚠️ 2026: The Financial System's Breaking Point 💥
I spent 87 hours dissecting the global financial landscape, and the findings are deeply unsettling. 2026 isn’t shaping up for a typical recession; it’s a convergence of risks centered around sovereign bond markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries.
Bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, is already signaling trouble – and bonds don’t lie. They react to tightening funding conditions, and three major fault lines are aligning: massive U.S. debt issuance with dwindling foreign demand, potential unwinding of Japanese carry trades impacting their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, and unresolved local government debt issues in China potentially weakening the yuan.
A single poorly received Treasury auction could be the catalyst, triggering a sequence of events: rising yields, a stronger dollar, liquidity crunch, and a sell-off in risk assets. This isn’t about solvency; it’s a systemic “plumbing” issue. 💧
However, this isn’t a doomsday scenario. Central banks will intervene, injecting liquidity and stabilizing the system – but at the cost of further inflating the money supply. This sets the stage for the next inflationary cycle, benefiting hard assets like gold and silver. And yes, $BTC is poised to recover as part of this broader shift.
The warning signs are here now – rising bond volatility. Don’t wait for the headlines.
#Macroeconomics #FixedIncome #Bitcoin #FinancialMarkets 🚀
