#CPIWatch

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate decreased to 2.7% in November 2025, down from 3% in September, beating expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, registered 2.6% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021 ¹ ².

*Key Drivers:*

- Energy prices firmed, rising 4.2% year-over-year, driven by petroleum products.

- Food prices cooled to 2.6% year-over-year.

- Shelter costs increased 3%, with owners' equivalent rent (OER) putting upward pressure on inflation.

*Forecasts:*

- Economists predict CPI inflation to reach 3.1% by the end of 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.

- The Federal Reserve expects inflation to trend around 2.6% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 ¹ ³.

*Implications:*

- The Fed might consider rate cuts, with a predicted cut in January 2026.

- Tariffs and labor market dynamics could influence future inflation trends ⁴.

What's your take on the current inflation outlook? Are you expecting further rate adjustments?