MADURO FALLS...OIL GOES UP
Maduro falls...oil goes up, and will continue to go up in 2026. Regardless of the fact that revitalizing Venezuelan oil production will add more barrels thereby increasing production, it won't be substantial since fixing and updating infrastructure will take years. Yet, the situation in Venezuela adds to the already complex chess game played between the US and Russia. Just today as wrote this piece many oil stocks went up between 4-12% in one single day.
The dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in late 2025 has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, igniting a sharp upside rally in oil prices. As opposition forces, backed by international pressure, detained the long-time leader amid escalating sanctions and civil unrest, Venezuela's vast oil reserves—estimated at 303 billion barrels, the world's largest—suddenly appear within reach of stabilization and production ramp-up.Trading data confirms the impact: Brent crude jumped 1.70% per barrel in just 48 hours of the news. I believe oil prices will shoot to the upside, with Brent potentially averaging $90 in H1 2026 and peaking at $100 by year-end. Key drivers include eased U.S. sanctions, enabling PDVSA to repair its crumbling infrastructure and boost output from 700,000 bpd toward 2 million bpd pre-crisis levels.This supply normalization paradoxically fuels prices short-term due to geopolitical risk premiums evaporating slowly, alongside OPEC+ cuts holding firm at 5.8 million bpd. For traders, long positions in WTI calls above $85 offer high-reward setups. Venezuela's revival could add 1-2 million bpd globally by mid-2026, but expect volatility as political transitions unfold. Oil's 2026 bull run is just beginning.