📉 CRACK IN THE ICE: Job Openings Plunge to 7.14M
The labor market just sent a loud signal to the Fed. Today’s JOLTS report didn't just miss expectations—it went under them by nearly half a million.
The Numbers:
Actual: 7.14 Million
Expected: 7.61 Million
The Delta: A massive -470,000 gap.
Why this matters right now:
We are officially looking at the lowest level of job openings since late 2024. While the "soft landing" narrative has been the consensus, this data suggests the labor market isn't just "cooling"—it’s tightening in a way that could hurt growth.
The "New Normal" for Workers:
Hiring Freeze Lite: Companies aren't mass-firing (layoffs remain low), but they’ve stopped the "Help Wanted" signs.
The "Big Stay": The Quits Rate is stagnant. Workers are clenching their current roles, afraid to jump ship in a shrinking market.
Fed Pressure: This puts the Federal Reserve in a corner. With openings dropping this fast, the argument for aggressive rate cuts just got a lot stronger to avoid a recession.
The Bottom Line: The "Great Resignation" is a distant memory. We are now in a "Great Stagnation" where finding a new seat at the table is becoming significantly harder.
