🚢⚡ Geopolitics at Sea: Venezuela’s Oil Reset & Tanker Boom 🌍🛢️
- U.S. Sanctions Shift: Washington is dismantling Venezuela’s shadow fleet, forcing crude into regulated channels.
- Oil Release: Around 50M barrels of stranded Venezuelan crude are being unlocked, reshaping flows.
- Tanker Rates Surge:
- Caribbean → US Gulf (TD9): $78,795/day
- Mexico → US Gulf (TD26): $90,681/day
- US Gulf → Rotterdam (TD25): $64,404/day
- China Sidelined: Venezuelan exports to China projected to collapse from 642k bpd (2025) to 166k bpd (2026).
- Investment Gap: Industry revival needs $100B in infrastructure; Exxon labels Venezuela “uninvestable.”
- Future Outlook: By 2035, Venezuela could pump 1.5–3M bpd, filling a looming 2M bpd global deficit.
🌍 Market Implications
- Shipping Congestion: Tankers are repositioning, driving Aframax rates to multi‑year highs.
- Energy Realignment: U.S. aims to secure Western Hemisphere supply while squeezing China’s refiners.
- Price Stability: Despite tanker chaos, Brent remains steady thanks to 1–2M bpd oversupply in H1 2026.
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